2018
08-08
Back
to List
Academia Charles Wang : Continue to be optimistic about technology and consumption two-wheel drive
Back
to List

The Sino-US trade war is at a critical stage. Developed countries, including the United States, Europe and Japan, may establish a free trade zone, which will make the WTO cease to exist except in name, and is unfavorable to China's development. China's countermeasures include the continuous development of the “Belt and Road” strategy, the establishment of the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone, and the promotion of the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao economic belt. In other words, China's response measures mainly rely on internal forces and external forces. The unfavorable factor for China is that it is difficult for these measures to change the fact that China's structural reforms have slowed down in the short term. The favorable factor is that the negotiations between the US, Europe and Japan to establish a free trade zone may be protracted, and China's strength will be steadily improved during this period.

 

In terms of economic, the economy growth is expected to remain stable but slightly downward in the third quarter of 2018 to the end of the year. In terms of policy, the Chinese government will adjust its fiscal policy to be more active in July. The expected stabilization of the fiscal strategy will heat up, which will alleviate the economic downturn caused by the trade war. These policies are mainly to respond to changes in the international situation. The monetary policy has also continued to be marginal, and the central bank has implemented measures such as lowering the RRR and directing MLF. However, it is impossible for the country to implement flood irrigation strategy, so real estate and infrastructure will continue to be weak, and leading companies will rise. The low growth of real estate and infrastructure will affect the upstream and downstream industry chain. The leading companies in the upstream and downstream industry chain will win in fine management. Real estate, infrastructure-related companies and upstream and downstream industrial chain companies will continue to differentiate, leading companies will stronger and stronger, and is of higher value in investment.

 

Sino-US relations will entangle for a long time. Fluctuations in related policies will affect the short-term and even medium- and long-term growth of related industries. The degree of influence is different for different industries. In the selection of industries, we will focus on three directions: 1. the industries that products are mainly sold in domestic market, and that is unaffected by imports and exports; 2. the industries supported by the state for trade war; 3. The industries that is of core competitiveness, and is able to compete with that of developed countries in the international market.

 

In the long run, China is in an unprecedented period of development, and large innovations and big manufacturing will continue to rise. Technology will become a new driving force for economic growth in the future, and consumption is the endogenous driving force for economic growth.

After a round of slumping, the stock market has reached the bottom of the valuation. However, as the Sino-US trade war has just begun, the market will not be strong and the market will show a volatile state. The performance of the companies is prioritized, and the allocation of technology and consumer stocks is preferred. Pay attention to the “shuttle run” feature within the technology and consumer industries.

 

The investment tends to be refined and systematic, and retail investors continue to be institutionalized. Since A-shares continue to be US-shared and investment is long-term, short-term risk disturbances and policy disturbances are basically unaffected by stock investment. As the turnover rate continues to be low, the performance of securities companies is under pressure. Defaults of the bank remains low, the performance was good, and openness will increase, which show that bank shares should be allocated at least as that in CSI 300 Index. Electronic stocks have the dual attributes of technology and consumption, and are the key support of the state, so they should be configured more.

 

View Full Article

 

The Disclaimer

The information contained in this article is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment decisions based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional, as this article does not constitute an investment advice and should not be used as a basis for making investment decisions otherwise. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the Fund Manager and do not necessarily reflect the official policy and position of OP Investment Management Limited or any of its affiliates (the “Company”). The views, opinions, and/or assumptions made in this publication are not reflective of those of any entity other than the Fund Manager himself. The contents of the publication may change or could be revised at any time without prior notice. The Company is not held for such views. Under no circumstances shall the Company or the fund managers be liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential liabilities that will arise in connection with the article, including any potential, past, and/or current conflict of interest. Investment involve risk. The performance represented is historical; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, and investors and or readers should not use this piece as an explanation for any guarantees or promises made on the company and/or market analysis to make profit, or as a piece of investment advice. This presentation is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of units of any funds and securities.The Company and the Fund Manager assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this article. The information contained in this article is provided on an “as is” basis with no guarantee of accuracy, usefulness, or timeliness express or implied. While the Fund Manager has made every attempt to ensure that this information contained in this site has been obtained from reliable sources and the Company has attempted every step in reviewing the article, neither parties are responsible for any errors, omission, or damages arising out of any person’s use of and reliance upon any information on the publication.

 

Terms of Use and Disclaimers

 

Important

 

OP Investment Management Limited (“OPIM”) is a regulated institution in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”).

 

This website contains information about OPIM and may reference services and products offered by OPIM.

 

The information provided on the OPIM website is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country that would subject OPIM or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country.

 

You are responsible for observing all applicable laws and regulations of their relevant jurisdictions before proceeding to access the information contained herein.

 

By proceeding, you are representing that you have understood and accepted the restrictions set out in this section.

 

The website is prepared by OPIM and has not been reviewed by the SFC.

 

 

No Offer

 

Neither the information nor any opinions contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by OPIM or any of its affiliates to buy or sell, whether as principal or agent, any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any related service or investment advice in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local laws or regulations. The information contained in these pages is not intended as any investment advice. Persons accessing these pages should obtain appropriate professional advice when necessary.

 

 

No Warranty

 

Although the information on this site is obtained or compiled from sources believed to be reliable, OPIM cannot and does not warrant the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any such information.

 

OPIM expressly disclaims any warranties of merchantability or fitness of a particular purpose or duties of care. All information on this site is provided "as is", and is subject to change without prior notice.

 

 

Limitation of Liability

 

In no event will OPIM or its affiliates be liable or have any responsibility for damages of any kind, whether direct, indirect, special, consequential or incidental, resulting from access or use of, or inability to access or use, this site or any sites or pages linked to this site, including (without limitation) damages resulting from the act or omission of any third party, even if OPIM or its affiliates has been advised of the possibility thereof.

 

 

Use of Links

 

Should the viewer leave this site via a link contained herein, and view content that is not provided by OPIM, the viewer does so at its own risk. OPIM is not responsible for damages or losses caused by any delays, defects or omissions that may exist in the services, information or other content provided in such site, whether actual, alleged, consequential or punitive. OPIM makes no guarantees or representations as to, and shall have no liability for, any electronic content delivered by any third party or have any responsibility, including without limitation, the accuracy, subject matter, quality or timeliness of any electronic content.

 

 

Copyright and Trademarks

 

OPIM and other parties own the trademarks and logos displayed on this site. These may not be used without the written permission of OPIM or the party owning these. Also, the information on this site are protected by copyright and no part of it may be copied, transmitted, disseminated, sold, distributed, published, broadcasted, circulated, stored for subsequent use or commercially exploited in any manner without the prior written consent of OPIM.

 

 

Internet Security

 

OPIM does not represent or warrant that no viruses or other contaminating or destructive properties will be transmitted or that no damage will occur to your computer system. You hereby acknowledge and confirm that the internet is not a secure medium where privacy can be ensured, and that complete security and confidentiality over the internet is not possible at this time.

 

You have sole responsibility for adequate protection and back up of data and/or equipment and for undertaking reasonable and appropriate precautions to scan for computer viruses or other destructive properties.

 

OPIM shall not be responsible or liable for any harm that you may suffer in connection with any such breach of confidentiality or security.

 

OPIM also makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, functionality or performance of any third party software that may be used in connection with this site.

  

 

Amendment

 

The information contained on this site is subject to modification and update from time to time without notice.

 

 

Additional Terms

 

Certain sections or pages on this site may contain separate terms and conditions which are in addition to these terms and conditions. In the event of a conflict, the additional terms and conditions will govern for those sections or pages.

 

 

Governing Law

 

Use of this site shall be governed by the laws of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

 

DECLINE ACCEPT